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Skirt Trends & the Economy: Coincidence or Correlation?
Over the years, recent runway collections and clothing trends have been associated with signs of economic uncertainty. They are known as fashion recession indicators. However, none of these fashion economic indicators have been scientifically confirmed. Some of the theories show obvious inconsistencies and are not definite indications that a recession is imminent. A few fashion-economy theories such as the lipstick index or the “no lash look” can be considered humorous coincidences. However, some shifts in fashion, including the rise of minimalism, "business casual”, and hemline index might indeed reflect underlying economic anxieties and changes in consumer spending habits.
FINANCETRADEECONOMICSTRENDFASHION
Joya Saliba
6/16/20254 min read
With the recent political events taking place in the United States of America and the questionable high tariffs that will be imposed by Trump’s administration in a few weeks, a recession is feared by the American citizens. However, in today’s very globalized world, a recession taking place in a nation as economically and politically involved as the United States will not only affect the USA but all countries who participate in trade with them – in other words, the majority of the world. Most economists are therefore warning that we are likely heading to a global recession. JPMorgan analysts demonstrated that the risk of the global economy falling into a recession has increased from 40% to 60% after this tariff war was announced.
But what is a recession?
A recession is a period of continued negative economic growth. It is defined as a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, according to the IMF(International Monetary Fund). It can happen because of wars, pandemics, an industry collapse, or even an overheated economy.
A more practical and precise definition of recession would be an observation of a decline of two consecutive quarters in a country’s real gross domestic product (GDP)— the value of all goods and services it produces. In a global recession, those losses would occur across multiple economies worldwide
Fashion and economy:
Over the years, recent runway collections and clothing trends have been associated with signs of economic uncertainty. They are known as fashion recession indicators. However, none of these fashion economic indicators have been scientifically confirmed. Some of the theories show obvious inconsistencies and are not definite indications that a recession is imminent. A few fashion-economy theories such as the lipstick index or the “no lash look” can be considered humorous coincidences. However, some shifts in fashion, including the rise of minimalism, "business casual”, and hemline index might indeed reflect underlying economic anxieties and changes in consumer spending habits.
What Is the Hemline Index?
The hemline index is a theory that the stock market moves in the same direction as women’s skirt lengths. More specifically, it states that the shorter the skirt, the better the economy, and the longer the skirt, the worse the economy. This theory originates back to 1926, when economist George Taylor showcased the possible correlation between economic prosperity (or lack thereof) and skirt length.
The idea that shorter skirts signal economic prosperity while longer hemlines indicate financial downturns is a very shocking and intriguing claim that tries to show a link between fashion trends and economic performance. Economists have debated this theory for decades. Many people disagreed with the existence of the hemline theory. Others have argued for the existence of a link between these two fields of fashion and economics by presenting arguments based on historical data and analysis.
Historical overlap of skirt lengths and economic events:
1920s: The flapper style is a popular fashion and cultural movement representing social and artistic freedom. Known for pushing the social boundaries, this movement emerged during the roaring twenties. This period of discovered fashion and social freedom was well in coordination with the economic boom in the 20’s.
1930s: With the great depression came a new fashion trend cycle: Utility fashion. Fashion followed the overall trends associated with the great depression era. Fashion returned to modesty, longer skirts, additional fabric, and greater coverage, enabling women to give up additional costs such as stockings. Fashion transitioned from a creative rebellion to a mere ‘dressing moral duty’.
While the hemline index theory has historical data support, it is not consistently reliable:
In the 1940s, hemlines shortened and short skirts re-entered the market, not because of financial growth, but due to wartime fabric distribution and the need for practical clothing as women joined the workforce.
The 1970s entirely disputed the previous established pattern. During economic recession and political instability, mini, midi, and maxi skirts trends rose and co-existed simultaneously. The fashion landscape was co-shared by multiple trends rather than pursuing a single trend and drawing a parallel to the current economic state. Similarly, since the 2008 recession and, later, the 2020s, fashion became increasingly globalized and specific to each individual, without a consistent correlation between hemlines and economic circumstances.
These historical examples show that while the Hemline Index may have occasional historical evidence, it’s inconsistent. Since the globalization of fashion, trends are becoming more unpredictable in modern societies.
Psychological link between fashion trends and the economy:
The relation between fashion and recessions is more of a cultural and psychological observation than a definitive economic rule. The Hemline Index suggests that fashion reflects consumer feelings and economic confidence. When the economy is strong, people tend to feel more optimistic and open to taking risks—not only in financial decisions but also in how they express themselves, including fashion. Shorter skirts are often associated with boldness, freedom, and vibrancy—similar to the excitement felt during a booming economy.
On the other hand, during economic downturns, financial uncertainty makes people more cautious. Longer skirts might symbolize a shift toward conservatism, modesty, and practicality—qualities that align with a recessionary mindset. In tough times, consumers may prioritize durability and traditional styles over flashy trends.
Conclusion :
The hemline index theory portrays an interesting economic perspective. However, like many economists have explained and argued, the hemline index relies heavily on correlation rather than causation. That said, it does not mean that a relationship between fashion and economy is non-existent. It does exist but it’s more of a psychological link than a direct economic one.
It’s not the economy itself that influences our fashion sense, but our reaction to what’s going on in the world. Our responses to these events reflect themselves in our shopping habits as unconscious decisions sometimes.
As Marlen Komar wrote for InStyle, “It’s not so much the economy that influences our fashion sense, but our reaction to what’s going on in the world and how that makes us feel.”